Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints

Álvaro Cartea (), Marcelo Figueroa and Helyette Geman
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Helyette Geman: School of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck

No 802, Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance from Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics

Abstract: We present a spot price model for wholesale electricity prices which incorporates forward looking information that is available to all market players. We focus on information that measures the extent to which the capacity of the England and Wales generation park will be constrained over the next 52 weeks. We propose a measure of ‘tight market conditions’, based on capacity constraints, which identifies the weeks of the year when price spikes are more likely to occur. We show that the incorporation of this type of forward looking information, not uncommon in the electricity markets, improves the modeling of spikes (timing and magnitude) and the different speeds of mean reversion.

Keywords: capacity constraints; mean reversion; electricity indicated demand; electricity indicated generation; regime switching model. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2008-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene and nep-mic
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (15)

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https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/7594 First version, 2008 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Modelling Electricity Prices with Forward Looking Capacity Constraints (2009)
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