An Empirical Investigation of US Fiscal Expenditures and Macroeconomic Outcomes

Yunus Aksoy and Giovanni Melina

No 1105, Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance from Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics

Abstract: In addition to containing stable information to explain inflation, state-local expenditures have also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US inflation than the Federal funds rate. Non-defense federal expenditures are useful in predicting real output variations and, starting from the early 1980s, present also a larger share of the forecast error variance of US real output than the Federal funds rate.

Keywords: Information value; state-local expenditures; forecast error variance decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mac
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https://eprints.bbk.ac.uk/id/eprint/5973 First version, 2011 (application/pdf)

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Journal Article: An empirical investigation of US fiscal expenditures and macroeconomic outcomes (2012)
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