Assessing Global Potential Output Growth

Patrick Alexander, Michael Francis (), Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, Patrick Kirby, Louis Poirier and Sri Thanabalasingam

Staff Analytical Notes from Bank of Canada

Abstract: This note estimates potential output growth for the global economy through 2019. While there is considerable uncertainty surrounding our estimates, overall we expect global potential output growth to rise modestly, from 3.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.4 per cent in 2019. This gradual increase is expected to be broad-based, reflecting growth-enhancing reforms in oil-importing emerging-market economies (excluding China) and in the euro area and the diminishing drag on investment in commodity-producing regions stemming from the 2014–15 decline in commodity prices. Potential output growth in the United States is expected to rise modestly through 2019 driven by a small recovery in trend total factor productivity growth. China is the only major economy where potential output growth is expected to slow, albeit moderately, as it gradually transitions to a more sustainable growth path featuring slower investment growth.

Keywords: International topics; Potential output; Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 E20 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 10 pages
Date: 2017
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bca:bocsan:17-3

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