Assessing Global Potential Output Growth: April 2018

Richard Beard, Anne-Katherine Cormier, Michael Francis (), Katerina Gribbin, Justin-Damien Guenette, Christopher Hajzler, Kristina Hess, James Ketcheson (), Kun Mo, Louis Poirier and Peter Selcuk

No 2018-9, Staff Analytical Notes from Bank of Canada

Abstract: This note presents our estimates of potential output growth for the global economy through 2020. Overall, we expect global potential output growth to remain broadly stable over the projection horizon, averaging 3.3 per cent, although there is considerable uncertainty surrounding these estimates. There are offsetting dynamics across regions. Specifically, potential output growth is expected to increase in the United States, reflecting a slight rise in capital deepening. In emerging-market economies, potential growth is also projected to strengthen, mainly due to a recovery of investment as well as structural reforms contributing to total factor productivity growth. Population aging and declining labour inputs slow potential output growth in Japan, China and the euro area. Potential output in China also slows due to moderating investment growth.

Keywords: International topics; Potential output; Productivity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E10 E20 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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