Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada: 2023 assessment

Julien Champagne, Christopher Hajzler, Dmitry Matveev, Harlee Melinchuk, Antoine Poulin-Moore, Galip Ozhan, Youngmin Park and Temel Taskin

No 2023-6, Staff Analytical Notes from Bank of Canada

Abstract: We expect that potential output growth will rebound from 1.4% in 2022 to 2.2% on average between 2023 and 2026. We revised down our estimates of growth over 2022–25 relative to the April 2022 assessment. The Canadian nominal neutral rate remains unchanged—in the range of 2% to 3%.

Keywords: Economic models; Interest rates; Labour markets; Monetary policy; Potential output; Productivity. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E E2 E3 E4 E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-05
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