Working Papers Series

From Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department
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619: The Effect of Instant Payments on the Banking System

Rodrigo Gonzalez, Yiming Ma and Yao Zeng

618: Judicial Discretion, Credit, and the Real Economy

Pedro Amoni and Leonardo Alencar

617: The Disciplining Effect of Bank Supervision: evidence from SupTech

Hans Degryse, Cédric Huylebroek and Bernardus Doornik

616: Household Debt Composition and Labor Market Outcomes

Nelson Camanho, Toni Santos, Jesús Gorrín and Bernardo Ricca

615: How Does Central Bank Independence Influence the Relationship Between Inflation, Income Inequality and Poverty?

Bruno Tiberto

614: Consumer Loans, Heterogeneous Interest Rates, and Inequality

Marco Bonomo, Tiago Cavalcanti, Fernando Chertman, Amanda Fantinatti, Andrew Hannon and Cezar Santos

613: Weathering the Storm: how supply chains adapt to extreme climate events

Thiago Silva, Paulo Wilhelm and Solange Guerra

612: Housing and Fertility

Bernardus Van Doornik, Dimas Fazio, Tarun Ramadorai and Janis Skrastins

611: Firm-Level and Aggregate Effects of Cheaper Liquidity: evidence from factoring

Victor Orestes, Thiago Silva and Henry Zhang

610: Savings-and-Credit Contracts

Bernardus Van Doornik, Armando Gomes, David Schoenherr and Janis Skrastins

609: Disentangling Brazilian TFP: the role of misallocation in recent economic cycles

Tomas Martinez and Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos

608: Measuring Inequality Using Electronic Payment Data

Carlos Piccioni, Saulo Bastos and Daniel Cajueiro

607: Macroprudential, Monetary Policy Synergies and Credit Supply: evidence from matched bank-firm loan-level data in Brazil

Rodrigo Gonzalez, Bernardus Doornik and João Barroso

606: Smoothing the New-Keynesian Capital Puzzle

Eduardo Amaral

605: Network Analysis of Exchange Rate Shocks: implications for financial stability in Brazil

Thiago Silva, Sergio Souza, Solange Guerra, Iuri Lazier and Rodrigo Miranda

604: Impact of the Disclosure of Survey Expectations of Macroeconomic Variables on Brazilian Interest Rates

Gustavo Araujo and Giancarlo Caoduro

603: Revisiting the Facts of Economic Growth: insights from assessing misallocation over 70 years for up to 100 countries

Tomas Martinez and Thiago Trafane Oliveira Santos

602: Core Inflation in Brazil: past and present

Vicente Machado

601: COVID-19 and Credit Reallocation: evidence from bank branch lending in Brazil

Thiago Silva, Carlos Almeida, Solange Guerra and Benjamin Tabak

600: Payment Technology Complementarities and their Consequences in the Banking Sector: evidence from Brazil’s Pix

Matheus Sampaio and Jose Ornelas

599: Do Firms Need Cheaper Credit to Grow? investigating the effectiveness of subsidized earmarked loans

Daniel Grimaldi and Jose Ornelas

598: The Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic on Cross-Border Banking Flows: comparative analysis between advanced and emerging market economies

Bruno Tiberto and Francisco Ferreira

597: Machine Learning and Economic Forecasting: the role of international trade networks

Thiago Silva, Paulo Wilhelm and Diego Amancio

596: The Balassa-Samuelson Effect during the Covid-19 Pandemic in Brazil

Jaqueline Marins, Marta Areosa and José Vicente

595: COVID-19 and Supply Chain Disruptions: a novel perspective using a network of payments in Brazil

Thiago Silva and Carlos Almeida

594: Critical Edges in Financial Networks

Michel Alexandre, Thiago Silva and Francisco Rodrigues

593: Social Discounting and the Tragedy of the Horizon: from the Stern-Nordhaus debate to target-consistent prices

Ramiro Peres

592: Renewable Energy Shocks and Business Cycle Dynamics with Application to Brazil

Alexandre Kornelius and Jose Angelo Divino

591: Mitigating Policies for Pollutant Emissions in a DSGE for the Brazilian Economy

Marcos Jorge, Angelo Fasolo and Silvio Costa

590: Pre-Publication Revisions of Bank Financial Statements: a novel way to monitor banks?

Andre Guettler, Mahvish Naeem, Lars Norden and Bernardus Van Doornik

589: Credit Supply Shocks and Firm Dynamics: Evidence from Brazil

Samuel Bazzi, Marc-Andreas Muendler, Raquel Oliveira and James Rauch

588: Predictability of Exchange Rate Density Forecasts for Emerging Economies in the Short Run

Jaqueline Marins

587: Predicting Recessions in (almost) Real Time in a Big-data Setting

Alexandre Costa, Pedro Ferreira, Wagner Gaglianone, Osmani Guillén, João Issler and Artur Rodrigues

586: Industry and Securities Market Influences on Indebtedness: evidence from a large dataset from Brazil

Flavio Docha and Luiza Rodrigues

585: A Little Less Uncertain about the Relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty and Economic Activity

Marcelo Aragão and Fabia Carvalho

584: Labor Market and Systemic Risk: a network-based approach

Michel Alexandre and Thiago Silva

583: The Value of Clean Water: evidence from an environmental disaster

Rodrigo Gonzalez, Jose Ornelas and Thiago Silva

582: A Novel Credit Model Risk Measure: does more data lead to lower model risk in credit scoring models?

Valter Jr, Alan Genaro, Rafael Schiozer and Toni Ricardo dos Santos

581: Bayesian Local Projections

Leonardo Ferreira, Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Giovanni Ricco

580: Information Sharing, Access to Finance, Loan Contract Design, and the Labor Market

Thorsten Beck, Patrick Behr and Raquel Oliveira

579: Government Banks and Interventions in Credit Markets

Gustavo Joaquim, Felipe Netto and José Ornelas

578: Brazilian Macroeconomic Dynamics Redux: Shocks, Frictions, and Unemployment in SAMBA Model

Angelo Fasolo, Eurilton Araújo, Marcos Jorge, Alexandre Kornelius and Leonardo Marinho

577: The Information Content from Lending Relationships Across the Supply Chain

Theo Martins, Rafael Schiozer and Fernando Linardi

576: Banks’ Physical Footprint and Financial Technology Adoption

Lucas Mariani, Jose Ornelas and Bernardo Ricca

575: Effects of Sustainable Monetary and Fiscal Policy on FDI Inflows to EMDE Countries

Bruno Tiberto and Helder de Mendonça

574: Anchoring Long-term VAR Forecasts Based On Survey Data and State-space Models

Marta Areosa and Wagner Gaglianone

573: Monetary Policy Surprises, Financial Conditions, and the String Theory Revisited

Leonardo Ferreira

572: Another Boiling Frog: the impact of climate-related events on financial outcomes in Brazil

Juliano Assunção, Flávia Chein, Giovanni Frisari and Sérgio Koyama

571: Does Fintech Lending Lower Financing Costs? Evidence From An Emerging Market

Jose Ornelas and Alexandre Pecora

570: Causal Impulse Responses for Time Series

Leonardo Marinho