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News Shocks, Real Exchange Rates and International Co-Movements

Kyriacos Lambrias ()

No 83, BCL working papers from Central Bank of Luxembourg

Abstract: We propose a fully flexible, complete-market model of the international business cycle that is consistent with two major empirical facts: positive cross-country co-movement of economic aggregates and a negative correlation between the real exchange rate and relative consumption (the Backus-Smith puzzle). The model features non-tradable goods, zero wealth effects on labour supply, imperfect substitutability of capital across sectors and variable capacity utilisation. The latter can generate strong Balassa-Samuelson effects that drive a low consumption-real exchange rate correlation. Cyclical movements across countries are also positively correlated. The novelty of our paper is to introduce changes in expectations (news-shocks) as an explanation to the Backus-Smith puzzle through the wealth effects of future changes in income, while being consistent with expectations-driven economic expansions.

Keywords: News-Driven Cycles; Backus-Smith Puzzle; Real-Exchange Rates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F41 F44 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-opm
Date: 2013-07
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