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Exports of Primary Products and Manufactures of Agricultural Origin in Argentina

Luis Lanter ()
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Luis Lanter: Central Bank of Argentina

No 201776, BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department

Abstract: This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina, using structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction) and annual data covering the period 1980-2016. To this end, long term restrictions are imposed on these models and the following structural shocks are identified: real effective exchange rate of U.S., international prices of commodities, agricultural GDP and real exchange rate of Argentina (in addition to exports of these products). The results show that the main sources of fluctuations in exports, after ten years, would be the shocks in international prices and real exchange rate of U.S., while the importance of the real exchange rate of Argentina and, especially, of the supply shocks would be smaller.

Keywords: macroeconomic shocks; exports; primary products; SVEC models; Argentina (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 F1 Q1 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2017-12
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