Balance of Payments Current Account Shocks. Some Evidence for Argentina

Luis Lanteri ()
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Luis Lanteri: Central Bank of Argentina

No 201883, BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to identify the different shocks that could affect the current account in the argentine case, such as the terms of trade (the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect-HLM), supply shocks (productivity), demand shocks (real exchange rate and public consumption /current GDP) and the shocks on the production side of the economy. SVAR models with long-term restrictions and quarterly data covering the period 1994-2018 are used. The results of the impulse-response functions suggest the existence of the HLM effect for this country. Shocks in the terms of trade would initially affect to the current account positively, as the improvements in the productivity and in the public saving (lower consumption).

Keywords: current account; terms of trade; Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect; productivity; public consumption; SVAR models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C3 E62 F32 F41 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 32 pages
Date: 2018-10
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