Consumer Loans Dynamics in 2020 in Argentina: An Approach Using Error Correction Models

Maximiliano Gomez Aguirre () and Ariel Krysa ()
Additional contact information
Maximiliano Gomez Aguirre: Central Bank of Argentina
Ariel Krysa: Central Bank of Argentina

No 202298, BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department

Abstract: With the aim of quantifying the effect of the decrease in interest rates on consumer loans (both credit cards and personal loans, in local currency to the non-financial private sector) in Argentina between March and December 2020, monthly error correction models are estimated, and counterfactual scenarios are developed for each of the credit lines. The sample that is used includes the period 2004-2020 and the determinants are the corresponding interest rates and economic activity measures. As an alternative case, it is assumed that interest rates would have been fixed in 2020 at the values of February that year and/or that the parameters of elasticities that operated in the consumer credit markets were those associated with the pre-COVID-19 context. The counterfactual scenarios implemented within the econometric models suggest that the decline in the interest rate would have cushioned, with different magnitudes throughout 2020, the fall caused by effects of the pandemic both in the credit cards and personal loans real balances.

Keywords: consumption credit; COVID-19 crisis; Argentina; credit cards; personal loans (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C01 E21 E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 39 pages
Date: 2022-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ban and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bcra.gov.ar/Institucional/DescargaPDF/DownloadPDF.aspx?Id=1024 Spanish version (versión en Español) (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bcr:wpaper:202298

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Federico Grillo ().