Soybean yield prediction in Argentina using climate data:Aspatial panel and time series approach

Emiliano Basco (), Diego Elías (), Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre () and Luciana Pastore ()
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Emiliano Basco: Central Bank of Argentina
Diego Elías: Central Bank of Argentina
Maximiliano Gómez Aguirre: Central Bank of Argentina
Luciana Pastore: Central Bank of Argentina

No 2025117, BCRA Working Paper Series from Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department

Abstract: Agriculture, and especially soybean production, has a critical role in Argentina’s economy, as a major contributor to GDP and export revenue. This paper studies the impact of climate variability on soybean yields in Argentina using a novel department-level dataset spanning 1980–2023. We estimate a fixed effects spatial error model (SEM) to quantify the effects of weather shocks—measured by extreme heat, precipitation, and ENSO phases—while controlling for economic and technological factors such as seed technology and relative prices.Our results show that extreme heat significantly reduces yields, while moderate rainfall boosts them up to a nonlinear threshold. El Niño phases increase yields, whereas La Niña events are detrimental. Technological adoption and favorable price signals also enhance productivity. These findings highlight the importance of accounting for both climate dynamicsand spatial distributionswhen estimatingagricultural outcomes. Time seriesmodelsprovide a strong empirical basis for forecasting soybean yields and informing policy decisions under increasing climate uncertainty.These models can be employed as effective tools for anticipating yield outcomes under different climate scenarios and utilized in stresstestexercises. This work provides valuable insights for policymaking decisions, contributing to prepare for potential economic impacts stemming from climate risks on Argentina’s agricultural sector.

Keywords: soybean yields; Argentina; forecasting; model selection (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C32 C33 Q10 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2025-05
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-env and nep-for
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