By 2079, Aridification Will Have Reduced the GDPs of Africa and Asia by 16% and 6.3%, respectively

Maurizio Malpede and Marco Percoco

No 14, GREEN Working Papers from GREEN, Centre for Research on Geography, Resources, Environment, Energy & Networks, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy

Abstract: We examine the effects of human-induced desertification on economic growth by exploiting a 56 km-by-56 km grid-cell global dataset on the annual frequency from 1990-2015. We find that areas that experienced large soil aridification are associated with a reduction in GDP per capita. Our results indicate that from 1990-2015, aridification reduced the GDPs of African and Asian countries by 12% and 2.7%, respectively. Our estimates are robust to adding higher-order terms of geo-climatic variables and controlling for country-specific linear trends, which allows us to project future costs of desertification. Our findings show that desertification will generate losses in GDP growth by 16% and 6.7% in Africa and Asia, respectively.

Keywords: Economic Growth; Climate Change; Development (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 O44 P18 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37
Date: 2021
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