Trump's Tariff Gamble: Likely Implications for India and How to Navigate it

Ashok Gulati (), Sulakshana Rao () and Tanay Suntwal ()
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Ashok Gulati: Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER)

Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Policy Paper from Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER), New Delhi, India

Abstract: This policy brief analyses the likely implications of the USA's additional reciprocal tariffs on India's exports to US, with specific focus on agriculture. Through a comparative analysis based on US import demand and competing countries' tariff rates, we identify sectors/commodities where India can still expand its presence despite the 26% reciprocal tariffs. The policy brief also discusses how to navigate the tariffs, as India proceeds to sector-wise bilateral discussions with US. Our research implies that India has a strategic opportunity to occupy the space that China will likely vacate in key labour-intensive and other export sectors. India's Textile & Apparel segment has a potential upside over the next few years if India can plug the gap left by our competitors. Sectors like machinery, smartphone, telecom, and networking; toys and games, leather, and footwear sector are prospective areas of growth.

Keywords: US Reciprocal tariffs; India-US bilateral relations; tariffs; non-tariff barriers; icrier; agriculture (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 page
Date: 2025-04
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