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A suite of inflation forecasting models

Luis Alvarez and Isabel Sánchez ()
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Isabel Sánchez: Banco de España

No 1703, Occasional Papers from Banco de España, Occasional Papers Homepage

Abstract: This paper describes the econometric models used by the Banco de España to monitor consumer price inflation and forecast its future trends. The strategy followed heavily relies on the results from a set of econometric models, supplemented by expert judgment. We consider three different types of approaches and highlight the relevance of heterogeneity in price-setting behaviour and the importance of using models that allow for a slowly evolving local mean when forecasting inflation.

Keywords: inflation; forecasting; Phillips curves; transfer functions; judgemental forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 52 pages
Date: 2017-02
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-for and nep-mac
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