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Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves

Luis Alvarez and Mónica Correa-López ()
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Mónica Correa-López: Banco de España

No 2018, Occasional Papers from Banco de España, Occasional Papers Homepage

Abstract: We analyze the information content of alternative inflation expectations measures, including those from consumers, firms, experts and financial markets, in the context of open economy Phillips curves. We adopt a thick modeling approach with rolling regressions and we assess the results of an out-of sample conditional forecasting exercise by means of meta regressions. The information content varies substantially across inflation expectations measures. In particular, we find that those from consumers and firms are better at predicting inflation if compared to those from experts and, especially, those from financial markets.

Keywords: inflation dynamics; inflation expectations; Phillips curve; euro area; thick modeling; meta regressions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E31 E37 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2020-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-ore
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2018

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