The AI Investment Boom: Capital Formation, Financing Structures, Interconnections and Vulnerabilities

Irene Pablos Nuevo
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Irene Pablos Nuevo: Banco de España

No 2623, Occasional Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper examines how the ongoing AI investment cycle is financed and supported, with a focus on the financial and strategic linkages among the main participants in the AI ecosystem. Drawing on a sample of leading firms in the sector, the analysis documents the increasing reliance on private markets to mobilize capital and distribute risk, notably for infrastructure expansion and access to critical components. Particular attention is paid to developments in 2025 and in 2026 to date, with historical data at the group level used to provide context for recent trends. The evidence presented suggests that, while current investment and funding strategies are facilitating rapid capital formation, they may also introduce vulnerabilities associated with long-term commitments, strong interdependencies and the growing use of complex structured arrangements. In this context, the reliance on future cash flows and continued access to external funding and commercial commitments may expose these firms to adverse shocks, especially in a less favorable macro-financial environment.

Keywords: AI-related investment; AI value chain; private markets; non-bank financial institutions; cash flows; bond issuance; lease commitments (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G23 G24 G30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 46 pages
Date: 2026-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:opaper:2623e

DOI: 10.53479/44805

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