A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro-area

Pilar Bengoechea () and Gabriel Pérez-Quirós ()
Additional contact information
Pilar Bengoechea: European Commission
Gabriel Pérez-Quirós: Banco de España
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

No 419, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper investigates the identification and dating of the European business cycle, using different methods. We concentrate on methods and statistical series that provides timely and accurate information about the contemporaneous state of the economy in order to provide the reader with a useful tool that allows him or her to analyze current business conditions and make predictions about the future state of the economy. In this spirit, we find that the European Commission industrial confidence indicator (ICI) is useful in providing that information.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Confidence Indicators; Markov Switching; Turning Points (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C32 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2004-11
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (16)

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http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... o/04/Fic/dt0419e.pdf First version, November 2004 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: A useful tool to identify recessions in the euro area (2004)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:0419

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