Ñ-STING: España Short Term INdicator of Growth

Maximo Camacho and Gabriel Perez-Quiros ()
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Gabriel Perez-Quiros: Banco de España
Authors registered in the RePEc Author Service: Gabriel Perez Quiros

No 912, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: We develop a dynamic factor model to compute short term forecasts of the Spanish GDP growth in real time. With this model, we compute a business cycle index which works well as an indicator of the business cycle conditions in Spain. To examine its real time forecasting accuracy, we use real-time data vintages from 2008.02 through 2009.01. We conclude that the model exhibits good forecasting performance in anticipating the recent and sudden downturn.

Keywords: Business Cycles; Output Growth; Time Series (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E27 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 28 pages
Date: 2009-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (7)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:0912

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