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Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market

Luisa Lambertini, Caterina Mendicino and Maria Teresa Punzi

No 1021, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: This paper analyzes housing market boom-bust cycles driven by changes in households’ expectations. We explore the role of expectations not only on productivity but on several other shocks that originate in the housing market, the credit market and the conduct of monetary policy. We f nd that, in the presence of nominal rigidities, expectations on both the conduct of monetary policy and future productivity can generate housing market boom-bust cycles in accordance with the empirical f ndings. Moreover, expectations of either a future reduction in the policy rate or a temporary increase in the central bank’s inf ation target that are not fulf lled generate a macroeconomic recession. Increased access to credit generates a boom-bust cycle in most variables only if it is expected to be reversed in the near future.

Keywords: boom-bust cycles; credit frictions; housing market (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E44 E52 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 pages
Date: 2010-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-bec, nep-cba, nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-ure
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... o/10/Fic/dt1021e.pdf First version, July 2010 (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market (2017) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2012) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2010) Downloads
Working Paper: Expectation-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market (2010) Downloads
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