TFP growth and commodity prices in emerging economies
Ivan Kataryniuk () and
Jaime Martinez-Martin ()
No 1711, Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage
In this paper we aim at empirically testing cross-country impacts of commodity price shocks to aggregate TFP growth for a sample of emerging economies. Under a growth accounting framework, we estimate country-specific TFP growth (1992-2014) and select the attendant robust determinants by means of a Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach. To identify the effects of structural shocks, we propose a Bayesian panel VAR model and calculate cyclically adjusted TFP growth net of demand shocks (i.e. output gap) and commodity prices. Our results suggest that: i) the relationship of commodity prices to TFP growth has been very high in small commodity-exporting economies (i.e. an increase of 10% in commodity prices is associated with a sizable expansion of TFP growth in a year for an average commodity exporter); ii) although our evidence is not suf?cient to empirically distinguish among theoretical explanations, our results favour an interpretation that weights short-term effects of commodity prices on productivity, either through transitional dynamics to the manufacturing sector or through mismeasurement of TFP; and iii) cyclically adjusted TFP growth highlights the importance of negative supply shocks in commodity-exporting countries. All in all, much of the increase in TFP growth in the last decade was related to a favourable cyclical environment, a result with potentially significant policy implications for commodity-dependent economies.
Keywords: total factor productivity; commodity prices; Bayesian model averaging; panel VAR. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: O47 Q02 C11 C23 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eff
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaci ... /17/Fich/dt1711e.pdf First version, March 2017 (application/pdf)
Journal Article: TFP Growth and Commodity Prices in Emerging Economies (2019)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1711
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España ().