Private saving. New cross-country evidencebased on bayesian techniques
Daniel Santabárbara and
Additional contact information
Irene Pablos: European Central Bank
No 1802, Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage
The existing literature exhibits high uncertainty over the theoretical and empirical determinants of private world saving. This paper reports new evidence on the drivers of private saving by applying Bayesian techniques, using data from the world’s 35 largest economies in the period 1980-2012. After reviewing the main theories of consumption and saving decisions, and discussing the potential effects of different determinants, we specify a general model that incorporates the most commonly used factors in the literature, considering the potential endogeneity of some of the regressors. The Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach summarises the information embedded in all combinations of the explanatory variables considered by averaging each specification according to its likelihood. We find that in the medium term private credit to GDP ratio, the government surplus to GDP ratio, the terms of trade, life expectancy and the old-age dependency ratio are key determinants of cross-country private saving behaviour. Lastly, we assess the long-term effect of expected demographic changes in private saving globally.
Keywords: consumption; saving; national saving; private saving; household saving; Bayesian model averaging; model uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C23 E21 H30 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-fdg and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicac ... 18/Files/dt1802e.pdf First version, January 2018 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1802
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España ().