International co-movements in recessions
No 1804, Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage
Business cycle correlations are state-dependent and higher in recessions than in expansions. In this paper, I suggest a mechanism to explain why this is the case. For this purpose, I build an international real business cycle model with occasionally binding constraints on capacity utilization which can account for state-dependent cross-country correlations in GDP growth rates. The intuition is that firms can only use their machines up to a capacity ceiling. Therefore, in booms the growth of an individual economy can be dampened when the economy hits its capacity constraint. This creates an asymmetry that can spill-over to other economies, thereby creating state-dependent cross-country correlations in GDP growth rates. Empirically, I successfully test for the presence of capacity constraints using data from the G7 advanced economies in a Bayesian threshold autoregressive (T-VAR) model. This finding supports capacity constraints as a prominent transmission channel of cross-country GDP asymmetries in recessions compared to expansions.
Keywords: international business cycles; business cycle asymmetries; GDP co-movement; capacity constraints; occasionally binding constraints (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E60 F41 F44 F47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-mac and nep-opm
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: Track citations by RSS feed
Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicac ... 18/Files/dt1804e.pdf First version, January 2018 (application/pdf)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.
Export reference: BibTeX
RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan)
Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1804
Access Statistics for this paper
More papers in Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by María Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de España ().