Backing the incumbent in difficult times: the electoral impact of wildfires
Roberto Ramos () and
Carlos Sanz ()
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Roberto Ramos: Banco de España
Carlos Sanz: Banco de España
No 1810, Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage
How do voters react to large shocks that are (mostly) outside the control of politicians? We address this question by studying the electoral effects of wildfires in Spain during 1983-2011. Using a difference-in-difference strategy, we find that a large accidental fire up to nine months ahead of a local election increases the incumbent party’s vote share by almost 8 percentage points. We find that a rally-behind-the-leader effect best explains the results. A simple formalization of this mechanism yields an implication – that the effect should be larger for stronger (more voted) incumbents – that is supported by the data.
Keywords: voting behavior; rally behind the leader; difference-in-differences (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D91 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm, nep-eur and nep-pol
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1810
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