Measuring retail trade using card transactional data

Diego Bodas (), Juan García López, Tomasa Rodrigo López (), Pep Ruiz de Aguirre (), Camilo A. Ulloa (), Juan Murillo Arias (), Juan de Dios Romero Palop (), Heribert Valero Lapaz () and Matías Pacce
Additional contact information
Diego Bodas: Mapfre
Tomasa Rodrigo López: BBVA Research
Pep Ruiz de Aguirre: BBVA Research
Camilo A. Ulloa: BBVA Research
Juan Murillo Arias: BBVA data & analytics
Juan de Dios Romero Palop: BBVA data & analytics
Heribert Valero Lapaz: BBVA data & analytics

No 1921, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: In this paper we present a high-dimensionality Retail Trade Index (RTI) constructed to nowcast the retail trade sector economic performance in Spain, using Big Data sources and techniques. The data are the footprints of BBVA clients from their credit or debit card transactions at Spanish point of sale (PoS) terminals. The resulting indexes have been found to be robust when compared with the Spanish RTI, regional RTI (Spain’s autonomous regions), and RTI by retailer type (distribution classes) published by the National Statistics Institute (INE). We also went one step further, computing the monthly indexes for the provinces and sectors of activity and the daily general index, by obtaining timely, detailed information on retail sales. Finally, we analyzed the high-frequency consumption dynamics using BBVA retailer behavior and a structural time series model.

Keywords: retail sales; big data; electronic payments; consumption; structural time series model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C55 C81 E21 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2019-07
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big and nep-mac
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:1921

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