Rates of SARS-COV-2 transmission and vaccination impact the fate of vaccine-resistant strains

Simón A. Rella (), Yuliya Kulikova, Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis () and Fyodor A. Kondrashov ()
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Simón A. Rella: Institute of Science and Technology Austria
Emmanouil T. Dermitzakis: University of Geneva Medical School
Fyodor A. Kondrashov: Institute of Science and Technology Austria

No 2129, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: Vaccines are thought to be the best available solution for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains may come too rapidly for current vaccine developments to alleviate the health, economic and social consequences of the pandemic. To quantify and characterize the risk of such a scenario, we created a SIR-derived model with initial stochastic dynamics of the vaccine-resistant strain to study the probability of its emergence and establishment. Using parameters realistically resembling SARS-CoV-2 transmission, we model a wave-like pattern of the pandemic and consider the impact of the rate of vaccination and the strength of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures on the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. As expected, we found that a fast rate of vaccination decreases the probability of emergence of a resistant strain. Counterintuitively, when a relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions happened at a time when most individuals of the population have already been vaccinated the probability of emergence of a resistant strain was greatly increased. Consequently, we show that a period of transmission reduction close to the end of the vaccination campaign can substantially reduce the probability of resistant strain establishment. These results, therefore, suggest the convenience of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and prevention protocols throughout the entire vaccination period.

Keywords: SARS-COV-2 transmission; vaccination; vaccine-resistant strains; SIR model; stochastic dynamics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C02 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 36 pages
Date: 2021-08
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea and nep-isf
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (12)

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