Political polarization in Europe

Marina Diakonova, Corinna Ghirelli and Javier J. Pérez
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Marina Diakonova: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Corinna Ghirelli: BANCO DE ESPAÑA
Javier J. Pérez: BANCO DE ESPAÑA

No 2533, Working Papers from Banco de España

Abstract: Political polarization—broadly defined as the growing ideological distance between political parties or their supporters—has become an increasingly prominent feature of both U.S. and European political discourse. While it is often associated with legislative dysfunction, existing measures tend to conflate polarization with its consequences. This paper proposes a narrative-based, cross-country approach to separately measure ideological polarization and legislative gridlock. Using dictionary-based analysis of national press coverage in France, Germany, Spain, and Italy, we construct two high-frequency indices: a Political Polarization Index, capturing the extent of ideological division, and a Legislative Gridlock Index, capturing evidence of policy stalling. Our results show that polarization has increased significantly in Europe since the Global Financial Crisis, though its institutional consequences vary by country: while France and Germany show a close link between polarization and gridlock, Spain and Italy present more nuanced patterns, likely reflecting differences in political institutions and reform trajectories.

Keywords: political polarization; policy gridlock; fiscal policy uncertainty; textual analysis; Europe (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D72 D74 H3 P16 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 55 pages
Date: 2025-09
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bde:wpaper:2533

DOI: 10.53479/40746

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