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Short-term inflation indicators

María Matea Rosa () and Ana Regil
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Ana Regil: Banco de España

No 9621, Working Papers from Banco de España, Working Papers Homepage

Abstract: To select the best leading indicators for predicting short-term inflation, an extensive number of economic variables is analysed at quarterly level on the basis of their past correlation with the consumer price index (CPI) and its services and non-energy processed goods component (IPSEBENE). Stationary series are used whose orders of integration have previously been tested by means of seasonal unit root tests.

Keywords: leading indicator; seasonal unit roots; prediction of inflation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 E31 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1996
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