Artificial intelligence and the US economy: an accounting perspective on investment and production

Luisa Carpinelli (), Filippo Natoli () and Marco Taboga ()
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Luisa Carpinelli: Bank of Italy
Filippo Natoli: Bank of Italy
Marco Taboga: Bank of Italy

No 1006, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the centre of policy, market and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the reverberations of the AI wave are captured in US national accounts, combining a simple macro-accounting framework with a stylized description of the AI production process. We highlight the crucial role played by data centres, which constitute the backbone of the AI ecosystem and attracted formidable investment in 2025 to meet the worldwide demand for AI services. In the first three quarters of the year, the boom in IT and AI-related capital expenditure clearly boosted aggregate US demand; the contribution to GDP was more limited, as a result of the high import incidence in AI hardware. Furthermore, simple calculations suggest that, at current utilization rates and pricing, the production of services originating in new AI data centres could boost GDP in the near future on a scale comparable to that recorded so far by investment spending. Short reinvestment cycles and uncertainty about future AI demand, while yet to act as a drag on growth, can nevertheless fuel macroeconomic risks over the medium term.

Keywords: artificial intelligence; capital expenditures; data centres; national accounts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E2 O3 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-03
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