Economic exposure to wildfires: a firm-level analysis based on innovative hazard mapping in Italy

Riccardo Russo (), Silvia Degli Esposti, Luca Ferraris (), Paolo Fiorucci (), Giorgio Meschi (), Nicolo' Perello () and Andrea Trucchia ()
Additional contact information
Riccardo Russo: Bank of Italy
Silvia Degli Esposti: CIMA Research Foundation
Luca Ferraris: CIMA Research Foundation
Paolo Fiorucci: CIMA Research Foundation
Giorgio Meschi: CIMA Research Foundation
Nicolo' Perello: CIMA Research Foundation
Andrea Trucchia: CIMA Research Foundation

No 1015, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the exposure of Italian businesses to wildfire risk, leveraging an innovative set of high-resolution wildfire hazard maps that are integrated with georeferenced firm-level data for assessing local exposure, as proxied by employment. The analysis offers a precise spatial matching between economic activity and wildfire susceptibility, thereby revealing pronounced geographical and sectoral heterogeneity: while only 1.4 per cent of Italian firms are currently exposed to wildfire hazard, the incidence is higher in southern regions and in sectors such as agriculture and construction. Moreover, nearly one third of wildfire-exposed establishments is also exposed to landslides. Turning to the economic consequences of wildfire events, the study finds that establishments affected by wildfires exhibit a similar probability of survival compared to their unaffected peers. Based on climate projections, the number of business sites exposed to wildfires can be estimated to increase by 3 per cent under the most conservative +1.5°C scenario and by 11 per cent under the +3°C scenario, with the largest increases in Puglia, Campania, and Lazio. This underscores the non-linear amplification of climate-related risks in the absence of effective adaptation strategies. These findings highlight the importance of integrating high-resolution physical risk data into economic and policy frameworks, both to improve the monitoring of climate-related vulnerabilities and to inform targeted adaptation and mitigation measures at the regional and sectoral level.

Keywords: natural disasters; wildfires; climate risk; firms (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D22 Q54 R11 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2026-1015/QEF_1015_26.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1015_26

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by ().