Medium-term forecasting of euro-area macroeconomic variables with DSGE and BVARX models

Lorenzo Burlon, Simone Emiliozzi, Alessandro Notarpietro and Massimiliano Pisani

No 257, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: The paper assesses the performance of medium-term forecasts of euro-area GDP and inflation obtained with a DSGE model and a BVARX model currently in use at the Bank of Italy. The performance is compared with that of simple univariate models and with the Eurosystem projections; the same real time assumptions underlying the latter are used to condition the DSGE and the BVARX forecasts. We find that the performance of both forecasts is similar to that of Eurosystem forecasts and overall more accurate than that of simple autoregressive models. The DSGE model shows a relatively better performance in forecasting inflation, while the BVARX model fares better in forecasting

Keywords: forecasting; DSGE; BVARX; euro area (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 E32 E37 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dge, nep-eec, nep-for and nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_257_15

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