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ITER A quarterly indicator of regional economic activity in Italy

Valter Di Giacinto (), Libero Monteforte (), Andrea Filippone (), Francesco Montaruli () and Tiziano Ropele ()
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Valter Di Giacinto: Bank of Italy
Andrea Filippone: Bank of Italy
Francesco Montaruli: Bank of Italy

No 489, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This work documents the construction of the new quarterly indicator of regional economic activity (Indicatore Trimestrale dell’Economia Regionale – ITER), which uses a parsimonious set of regional variables and combines them by means of temporal disaggregation techniques to obtain a quarterly index that is consistent with the official data on national and regional GDP and marked by a small lag compared with the reference period. The methodology was implemented to produce quarterly indicators for the economies of Italy’s four macro-areas in the period 1995-2017. With a view to assessing the performance of the quarterly indicator, a forecasting exercise was conducted regarding annual GDP growth in the four macro-areas for the period 2014-17. The forecasting performance of ITER is in line with that of the indicators developed by other national research institutions.

Keywords: temporal disaggregation by related series; regional economies benchmarking and extrapolation; real time estimates (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C61 C82 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ets
Date: 2019-04
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_489_19

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