Ven-ICE: a new indicator for the economy of the Veneto region

Massimo Gallo (), Sonia Soncin () and Andrea Venturini ()
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Massimo Gallo: Bank of Italy
Sonia Soncin: Bank of Italy

No 498, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: In the absence of timely quarterly information about regional GDP dynamics, this work establishes a new indicator of economic activity for the Veneto region, providing a monthly real-time estimation of the medium- and long-term dynamics of regional GDP. The methodology is based on the use of a Generalized Dynamic Factor Model to extract a few common components from about 120 local time series at monthly or quarterly frequency. Therefore, this indicator exploits the large amount of information available at local level: the official Istat statistics, the financial statistics provided by the Bank of Italy, and the many statistics produced by trade associations and by the local governments in the Veneto region. The model makes it possible to flexibly manage the many regional time series and to estimate the dynamics of regional economic activity with a three-month delay, instead of the twelve-month delay of Istat�s annual regional economic accounts.

Keywords: Economic cycle; regional economy; dynamic factor models (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C55 E37 R15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_498_19

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