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External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic

Gloria Allione () and Alberto Felettigh ()
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Gloria Allione: Bank of Italy

No 643, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: We econometrically investigate the heterogeneous ability of Italian exporting sectors at coping with the Covid-19 shock, which affected in an idiosyncratic fashion both supply, mainly due to the selective suspension of non-essential activities in the country during the lockdown in March-April 2020, and foreign demand. Our results show that had the lockdown not impaired production, overall Italian manufacturing exports would have fallen essentially one-to-one with foreign demand. We conclude that there is no evidence, so far, of Covid-19 having permanently weakened the decade-long ability of Italian firms to safeguard their positions in international markets.

Keywords: potential demand; export performance; sectoral heterogeneity; Covid-19 pandemic (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F14 F40 L60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-int
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