An Epidemic Model for SARS-CoV-2 with Self-Adaptive Containment Measures

Sabina Marchetti, Alessandro Borin (), Francesco Conteduca, Giuseppe Ilardi (), Giorgio Guzzetta (), Piero Poletti (), Patrizio Pezzotti (), Antonino Bella (), Paola Stefanelli (), Flavia Riccardo (), Stefano Merler (), Andrea Brandolini () and Silvio Brusaferro ()
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Alessandro Borin: Bank of Italy
Giuseppe Ilardi: Bank of Italy
Giorgio Guzzetta: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Piero Poletti: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Patrizio Pezzotti: Italian National Health Institute
Antonino Bella: Italian National Health Institute
Paola Stefanelli: Italian National Health Institute
Flavia Riccardo: Italian National Health Institute
Stefano Merler: Bruno Kessler Foundation
Silvio Brusaferro: Italian National Health Institute

No 681, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that allow non-pharmaceutical interventions to be tailored to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the interdependence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic, mostly overlooked by existing epidemiological models. In our innovative approach, we instead develop a model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism, effective in Italy since November 2020, and allows us to track the historical evolution of both health outcomes and restrictions in the country. By focusing on the epidemic wave triggered by the onset of the Delta variant, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. This trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g. vaccination coverage), with less reactive mechanisms (e.g. those based on occupancy rates) becoming more advantageous in favourable contexts.

Keywords: covid-19; epidemiological model; restrictions; Italy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H51 I12 I18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-hea
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