Nowcasting Italian industrial production: the predictive role of lubricant oils

Marco Fruzzetti and Tiziano Ropele ()
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Marco Fruzzetti: Bank of Italy
Tiziano Ropele: Bank of Italy

No 866, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper examines the potential of industrial lubricant oils as a predictor for nowcasting the index of Italian industrial production. The results show that nowcast accuracy can be significantly enhanced during periods of economic turbulence, such as the 2021-22 energy crisis. Industrial lubricant oils are a more robust economic indicator than other commonly used energy-related timely predictors, such as industrial gas consumption. Furthermore, the findings may prove relevant for nowcasting industrial production in the process of structural changes, such as the ongoing green transition.

Keywords: nowcasting; industrial production; energy; lubricants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E32 E66 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-07
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