Heterogeneity in fertility and newborn health during the COVID-19 pandemic

Edoardo Frattola () and Marco Tonello
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Edoardo Frattola: Bank of Italy

No 895, Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: In this paper, we leverage newly available rich administrative data to study the heterogeneous evolution of fertility and newborn health during the pandemic. We focus on Tuscany, a representative region of Italy, which was one of the first countries to experience the severe impact of the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. Our findings indicate a decline in the number of births relative to the pre-pandemic trend in late 2020 and early 2021, roughly nine to twelve months after the pandemic onset. However, starting in March 2021, birth numbers consistently exceeded the pre-pandemic trend, resulting in a cumulative 'baby bump' compared with the counterfactual scenario. This aggregate increase conceals significant heterogeneity across sociodemographic groups, with positive deviations entirely driven by native, educated, and employed parents. During the same period, newborn health indicators showed no signs of deterioration and, if anything, improved slightly.

Keywords: fertility; births; newborn health; pandemic; remote work (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I18 J10 J13 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_895_24

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