Statistical and forecasting use of electronic payment transactions: collaboration between Bank of Italy and Istat

Guerino Ardizzi () and Alessandra Righi ()
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Guerino Ardizzi: Bank of Italy
Alessandra Righi: Istat

No 27, Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento (Markets, Infrastructures, Payment Systems) from Bank of Italy, Directorate General for Markets and Payment System

Abstract: This paper illustrates how the use of payment data from the databases managed by the Bank of Italy can improve flash estimates of the business cycle and forecasts of the main macro-economic variables. It provides evidence of the importance of electronic payment data in flash estimates and short-term forecasts. In some product sectors, the series of electronic transactions recorded during the pandemic allow us to reduce the forecast error for quarterly final consumption expenditure by more than 50 per cent and to improve the nowcasting error of the total retail index and the e-commerce index by about 6 and 10 per cent respectively.

Keywords: cash; payment cards; other payment instruments; forecasts; flash estimates; shadow economy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E42 G2 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wpmisp:mip_027_22

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