Carry trades and exchange rate volatility: a TVAR approach

Alessio Anzuini and Francesca Brusa ()
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Francesca Brusa: Oxford University

No 1046, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: Recent empirical studies have established that deviations from the Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) condition may be different across macroeconomic regimes. We extend this work to account for possible nonlinearities and endogeneity by estimating a Threshold Vector Autoregression (TVAR) model. Using carry trade proxies as in Brunnermeier et al. (2009) alongside a measure of realized exchange rate volatility, we endogenously identify two volatility regimes: low and high. Simulating an incentive to open a carry-trade position through an orthogonal shock to the interest rate differential, we find that carry trade performance varies across different regimes. This suggests that UIP deviations are more pronounced in the low volatility state and non-linearities play a role in explaining the forward bias.

Keywords: Threshold Vector Autoregression; carry trade (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 G15 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-01
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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