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Real exchange rate misalignments in the euro area

Michael Fidora (), Claire Giordano () and Martin Schmitz

No 1162, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: Building upon a behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) model, estimated at a quarterly frequency since 1999 on a broad sample of 57 countries, this paper assesses whether both the size and persistence of real effective exchange rate misalignments from the levels implied by economic fundamentals have been affected by the adoption of a single currency. A comparison of real misalignments across different country groupings (euro area, non-euro area, advanced and emerging economies), shows they are smaller in the euro area than in its main trading partners. However, in the euro area real disequilibria are also more persistent, although after the global financial crisis the reactivity of real exchange rates to past misalignments increased, and therefore the persistence decreased. In the absence of the nominal adjustment channel, an improvement in the quality of regulation and institutions is found to reduce the persistence of real exchange rate misalignments, plausibly by removing real rigidities.

Keywords: Real effective exchange rate; equilibrium exchange rate; monetary union; regulation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E24 E30 F00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
Date: 2018-01
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