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ECB monetary policy and the euro exchange rate

Martina Cecioni ()

No 1172, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: The paper provides empirical evidence on the effects of ECB conventional and unconventional monetary policy on the euro exchange rate, focusing on the period from January 2013 to September 2017. Innovations to conventional and unconventional monetary policies are identified through changes in, respectively, short- and long-term interest rates immediately after Governing Council meetings. Both types of measures contributed to the depreciation of the euro from mid-2014; surprises associated with conventional measures had a stronger and more persistent effect than those associated with unconventional ones. Time-varying estimates of the effects of conventional surprises since 1999 show that the responsiveness of exchange rates to monetary news increased markedly from 2013. State-dependence analysis finds that the exchange rate became more sensitive to monetary policy when the ECB adopted a policy of negative interest rates and when conventional and unconventional monetary surprises moved in the same direction.

Keywords: unconventional monetary policy; exchange rates; European Central Bank (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E52 E58 F31 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac, nep-mon and nep-opm
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1172_18

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