Personal Saving and Social Security in Italy: Fresh Evidence from a Time Series Analysis

Francesco Zollino ()
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Francesco Zollino: Banca d'Italia

No 417, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: The paper provides an econometric analysis of the aggregate saving function of Italian households in the vein of the life cycle theory. Results from an ECM representation based on yearly data for 1951-1998 point to depressive effects on private consumption of recent reforms of social security, actual and expected for next few years. In order to compensate for both reductions in actual pension payments and increased uncertainty about their future claims, households stepped up accumulation of real and financial assets since the beginning of the nineties. First estimates of capital gains do not show a significant impact on consumption demand, in the short and in the long period: their high volatility has likely hindered a fair assessment of their contribution to personal purchasing power on the part of households. Demographic changes, while in the long run not seemingly determined in conjunction with the economic variables we consider, turn out to play a significant role in the evolution of consumption demand.

Keywords: life cycle; saving; pension wealth; capital gains; demographic changes (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E21 E62 H31 H55 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2001-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_417_01

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