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Forecasting the industrial production index for the euro area through forecasts for the main countries

Roberta Zizza ()

No 441, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: The aim of the present work is to obtain short-term predictions of the monthly volume of the industrial production of the euro area. Preliminary information on the behaviour of this variable is needed, since the index is released with a lag of about two months. A model based on the US industrial production index and on the single-country forecasts of the production indices for the main euro-area countries is proposed.

Keywords: prediction; industrial production; forecast combination; encompassing (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C22 C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002-03
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