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Information variables for monetary policy in a small structural model of the euro area

Francesco Lippi and Stefano Neri ()

No 511, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: This paper estimates a small New-Keynesian model with imperfect information and optimal discretionary policy using data for the euro area. The model is used to assess the usefulness of monetary aggregates and unit labour costs as information variables for monetary policy. The estimates reveal that the information content of the M3 monetary aggregate is limited. A more useful role emerges for the unit labour cost indicator, which contains information on potential output that helps to reduce the volatility of the output gap. Finally, the estimated weights for the objectives of monetary policy show that considerable importance is attributed to interest-rate smoothing, greater than to output gap stabilization. This finding indicates that the welfare gains of commitment may be smaller than suggested by typical parametrizations of New-Keynesian models.

Keywords: monetary policy; Kalman filter; inflation; output gap (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2004-07
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Working Paper: Information Variables for Monetary Policy in a Small Structural Model of the Euro Area (2003) Downloads
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_511_04

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