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Did inflation really soar after the euro cash changeover? Indirect evidence from ATM withdrawals

Paolo Angelini () and Francesco Lippi

No 581, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: The introduction of the euro notes and coins in the first two months of 2002 was followed by a lively debate on the alleged inflationary effects of the new currency. In Italy, as in the rest of the euro area, survey-based measures signaled a much sharper rise in inflation than measured by the official price indices, whose quality was called into question. In this paper we gather indirect evidence on the behavior of prices from the analysis of cash withdrawals from ATM and their determinants. Since these data do not rely on official inflation statistics, they provide an independent check for the latter. We present a model in which the relationship between aggregate ATM withdrawals and aggregate expenditure is not homogenous of degree one in the price level, a prediction which is strongly supported by the data. This feature allows us to test the hypothesis that, after the introduction of the euro notes and coins, consumer prices underwent an increase not recorded by official inflation statistics. We do not find evidence in support of this hypothesis.

Keywords: banknotes; currency; euro; inflation. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E41 E31 E51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-eec, nep-ifn, nep-mac and nep-mon
Date: 2006-03
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (10) Track citations by RSS feed

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