Oil and the macroeconomy: a quantitative structural analysis

Francesco Lippi and Andrea Nobili

No 704, Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) from Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area

Abstract: We consider an economy in which the oil costs, industrial production, and other macroeconomic variables fluctuate in response to fundamental domestic and external demand and supply shocks. We estimate the effects of these structural shocks on US monthly data for the 1973.1-2007.12 period using robust sign restrictions suggested by theory. The interplay between the oil market and the US economy goes in both directions. About 20% of changes in the cost of oil come in response to US aggregate demand shocks, while shocks originating in the oil market also affect the US economy, the impact depending on the nature of the shock: a negative oil supply shock reduces US output, whereas a positive oil demand shock has a positive and persistent effect on GDP.

Keywords: Business cycle; Oil prices; Structural VAR (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 E3 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-ene and nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

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Related works:
Journal Article: OIL AND THE MACROECONOMY: A QUANTITATIVE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS (2012)
Working Paper: Oil and the Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis (2010)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_704_09

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