Forecast Comparison of the Term Structure of Interest Rates of Mexico for Different Specifications of the Affine Model

Lelo de Larrea Alejandra

No 2020-01, Working Papers from Banco de México

Abstract: Four specifications of an affine model with risk aversion and no arbitrage conditions are estimated for the Mexican Term Structure of Interest Rates, contrasting their empirical properties and the accuracy of their in and out of sample forecasts. The traditional models are extended by adding macroeconomic variables to analyze if the latter provide sufficient information to improve the adjustment and the forecast of interest rates. Using monthly data of the Zero Coupon Bonds, VIX, WTI, exchange rate, inflation and growth in the period 2002-2017, it is found that, although there is no superiority of a single model for the in and/or out of sample forecast of the yield curve, adding macroeconomic variables helps to improve the short and medium term forecasts independently of the type of factors used.This article explores the aggregate effects of women's empowerment on intra- and intertemporal household choices within a Bewley-style heterogeneous agent framework to aggregate household level decisions into macroeconomic variables. Emphasis is placed on the role of attitudes towards risk and subsistence consumption. In this context, we find that as women get more empowered, we assume that households show a higher risk aversion reflecting the more risk adverse women's preferences. Thus, households heighten self-insurance by increasing precautionary savings for smoothing consumption and, in turn, this higher level of savings tends to reduce wealth inequality. Also, regardless of income, women's preferences increase food intake in households as women get empowered. The model is calibrated with the 2014 National Survey of Household Income and Expenditures of Mexico.

Keywords: Afin Model; Yield Curve Forecast; Principal Components; Kalman Filter; No-Arbitrage Condition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C32 C53 E43 E47 G12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mac
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