The effect of avian influenza outbreaks on table-egg prices: evidence from the Mexican market

Miriam Juárez-Torres, Jesús Arellano-González and Benjamín Contreras-Astiazarán

No 2025-11, Working Papers from Banco de México

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks on table-egg prices in Mexico. The analysis relies on monthly panel data of the price index of table eggs at the city level linked to records of HPAI outbreaks occurred in producing municipalities. Our findings suggest that exposure to an average HPAI outbreak immediately increases the price of table eggs by 1.5% relative to the price that would be observed in a scenario without HPAI. Exposure to HPAI outbreaks also has lagged effects. The highest increase (4.8%) is observed two months after the outbreak. Afterwards, the effect decreases and vanishes by the seventh month. Our results also suggest that the impact of HPAI outbreaks on the price of table eggs has decreased over time mainly due to a lower frequency and intensity of HPAI outbreaks possibly associated with an increased efficiency of the protocols of prevention, surveillance, control and eradication of HPAI outbreaks.

Keywords: egg prices; panel data; local markets; Avian influenza (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: I18 Q11 Q12 Q13 Q18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025-07
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