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Dynamic Connectedness and Causality between Oil prices and Exchange Rates

Jose Gomez-Gonzalez (), Jorge Hirs-Garzon () and Jorge Uribe ()

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: We study connectedness and causality between oil prices and exchange rates dynamically. Using data on the WTI and exchange rate returns for six countries in which oil production is a major production activity, we show that oil prices are net receptors of spillovers from excahnge rate markets. Connectedness exhibits important time variation and presents a positive trend during our sample period. We find evidence of bidirectional causality between oil prices and exchange rates, which presents also considerable time-variation. Causality is identified for longer periods of time from oil prices to exchange rates. However, we also find evidence of reverse causality, mainly in the period after the Subprime Financial Crisis. Our results provide evidence supporting the hypothesis of the financialization of oil markets.

Keywords: Time-varying causality; Oil price; Stock market returns; Emerging market economies. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G01 G12 C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ene
Date: 2017-10
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdr:borrec:1025

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