Indicadores de alerta temprana para el sector corporativo privado colombiano

María Fernanda Meneses-González (), Javier Pirateque and Santiago David Segovia-Baquero ()
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María Fernanda Meneses-González: Banco de la República de Colombia
Santiago David Segovia-Baquero: Banco de la República de Colombia

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: Este documento valida la utilidad de algunas variables financieras en la identificación temprana de acumulación de vulnerabilidades para el sector corporativo privado en Colombia. Para esto, se estudia la evolución de varios indicadores para firmas que han entrado en distress financiero. Adicionalmente, se valida la capacidad predictiva de los indicadores in-sample y out-of-sample. Los resultados sugieren que la razón de endeudamiento y una medida de debt-to-cashflow son las que mejor información proveen. Asimismo, se encuentra que la desagregación de las firmas por sector económico y el uso de medidas conjuntas aumentan la capacidad de identificación de situaciones de vulnerabilidad en este sector. **** ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the usefulness of some financial variables in predicting episodes of vulnerability for the private corporate sector in Colombia. We analyse the evolution of several indicators for firms that have experienced episodes of distress. Additionally, we validate the predictive power of our indicators by using in-sample and out-of-sample tests. The results suggest that the ratio of financial obligations to assets, as well as a measure of debt-to-cashflow provide better information. Likewise, we find that classifying the firms by economic sector and the use of several variables at the same time improve the ability to detect changes in the financial health of firms.

Keywords: debt-to-cashflow; alerta temprana; endeudamiento; distress financiero; estabilidad financiera; debt-to-cashflow; early warning; indebtness; financial distress; financial stability. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C25 C53 G32 G33 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 26
Date: 2019-07
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https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1084

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdr:borrec:1084

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