Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales

Sergio Restrepo-Ángel, Hernan Rincon-Castro and Juan Ospina-Tejeiro

Borradores de Economia from Banco de la Republica de Colombia

Abstract: En el artículo se estiman multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público para Colombia con técnicas de vectores autorregresivos estructurales y proyecciones locales estándar y suavizadas. Se utilizan series trimestrales del gobierno nacional central para el período 2000 a 2018. Los multiplicadores fiscales estimados son menores que la unidad, excepto cuando la economía experimenta una fase de contracción, cuando el del gasto resulta mayor. Los resultados en general se mantienen para diferentes esquemas de identificación y metodologías de estimación. **** ABSTRACT: This paper estimates multipliers of taxes and public spending for Colombia with techniques of structural autoregressive vectors and both standard and smooth local projections. Quarterly series of the central national government are used from 2000 to 2018. We estimate fiscal multipliers that are less than unity, except when the economy experiences a contraction phase, when that of spending is greater than unity. The results are generally maintained for different identification schemes and estimation methodologies.

Keywords: Choques fiscales; Blanchard y Perotti; proyecciones locales estándar y suavizadas; multiplicadores; fiscal shocks; Blanchard and Perotti; standard and smooth local projections; fiscal multipliers (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C32 C51 C53 E62 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 34
Date: 2020-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:bdr:borrec:1114

DOI: 10.32468/be.1114

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